August 31, 2026MixedMedium Conviction

Daily Macro Risk Pulse

A bear-steepening curve (+5bps on 10Y, +5bps on 2Y with 99bp spread) colliding with a weakening dollar and surging oil creates a stagflationary micro-pulse that favors real assets over duration-sensitive tech.

BTC$78,408+0.5%

ETH$2,448-0.3%

SOL$102.89-1.8%

Fear & Greed62Greed

VIX15.21+5.4%

DXY99.53-0.2%

US 10Y4.720%+1.0%

Gold$4,499+0.5%

Oil (WTI)$86.69+3.9%

S&P 5007,712-0.3%

RegimeMixed

ConvictionMedium

Analysis

Bear Steepening Resumes as Term Premium Reprices Higher

US10Y rose to 4.72% (+1.03%) while US02Y hit 3.73% (+1.41%), pushing the 2s10s spread to ~99bps — an unusually steep curve that reflects rising term premium rather than easing expectations. This is the worst configuration for long-duration assets: the front end isn't pricing cuts while the long end demands more compensation. NDX's -0.52% underperformance versus SPX's -0.25% confirms the duration sensitivity trade is alive. Portfolio implications: maintain underweight in high-multiple tech and favor cash-flow proximate equities.

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